Measuring forecast accuracy the useful way

Most teams measure forecast accuracy once, at the end of the quarter, when it matters least. Measure it early and often instead.

Snapshot the forecast weekly

Save the commit every Monday. At quarter end, compare each snapshot to the closed number and plot the error over time.

Watch week four and week eight

Error at week four tells you how much to trust the forecast for planning. Error at week eight tells you whether there is still time to act.

Improve one habit at a time

If early error is high, look at categories first, then stage weights. Change one thing per quarter so you can see what helped.