--- title: Keel | The complete guide to revenue forecasting — Nightshift theme description: The complete guide to revenue forecasting. A demo page of Nightshift, a dark editorial HubSpot theme by Studio Nope. --- [Skip to main content](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/pillar#main-content) [![Keel](https://www.nopethemes.com/hubfs/raw_assets/public/studionope-nightshift/images/brand/keel-logo-light.svg)](https://www.nopethemes.com/?hsLang=en) - Product - [Solutions](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/homepage#solutions) - Customers - [Pricing](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/pricing?hsLang=en) - Company - Resources - Pages [Log in](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/free-trial?hsLang=en) [Book a demo](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/demo?hsLang=en) [Product The revenue model, live](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/product?hsLang=en) [Features Everything in one model](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/features?hsLang=en) [Integrations Forty native connectors](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/integrations?hsLang=en) [Comparison Keel and the usual stack](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/comparison?hsLang=en) [Changelog What shipped this month](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/changelog?hsLang=en) [Customer stories 600 teams on Keel](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/case-studies?hsLang=en) [Ridgeway Logistics A story in full](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/case-studies/ridgeway-logistics?hsLang=en) [Testimonials In their own words](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/testimonials?hsLang=en) [Template gallery Dashboards teams built](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/portfolio?hsLang=en) [About Our story](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/about?hsLang=en) [Team The people behind Keel](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/team?hsLang=en) [Careers Eight open roles](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/jobs?hsLang=en) [Press News and media kit](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/press?hsLang=en) [Partners Grow with Keel](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/partners?hsLang=en) [Services Revenue architects](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/services?hsLang=en) [Contact Talk to us](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/contact?hsLang=en) [Blog The Keel Journal](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/blog?hsLang=en) [Resources Guides and tools](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/resources?hsLang=en) [Forecasting guide The complete guide](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/pillar?hsLang=en) [Video library Tours and talks](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/video-library?hsLang=en) [Events Revenue Summit 2027](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/events?hsLang=en) [Course Forecasting fundamentals](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/course?hsLang=en) [FAQs Questions, answered](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/faqs?hsLang=en) [Documentation Theme guide](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/documentation?hsLang=en) [Homepage 2 Product-led](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/homepage-2?hsLang=en) [Homepage 3 Brand-led](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/homepage-3?hsLang=en) [Free trial Landing page](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/free-trial?hsLang=en) [Ebook Landing page](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/ebook?hsLang=en) [Webinar Landing page](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/webinar?hsLang=en) [Waitlist Landing page](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/waitlist?hsLang=en) [Conversion 1 Landing page](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/conversion-1?hsLang=en) [Conversion 2 Landing page](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/conversion-2?hsLang=en) [Conversion 3 Landing page](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/conversion-3?hsLang=en) [Legal Privacy policy](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/legal?hsLang=en) [404 Error page](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/404?hsLang=en) [Search System page](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/search?hsLang=en) - 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How to build, run and measure a forecast your company can plan on. 14 minutes, by Tyler Hayes. [Download as PDF](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/ebook?hsLang=en) On this page A revenue forecast is a promise the sales team makes to the rest of the company. Finance plans hiring on it, the board judges the quarter by it, and the people who make it are usually the busiest in the building. This guide covers how good forecasts are built, run and measured. ## What a revenue forecast is for A forecast exists so the company can make decisions before the quarter ends: whether to hire, where to spend and which deals need help. A forecast that is only accurate in the last week has failed, even if the final number is right. The best teams treat the forecast as a range that narrows over the quarter, with a commit number managers stand behind and a best case that shows the upside. ## Choosing forecast categories Categories are the vocabulary of the forecast. Most teams use three or four: - **Commit:** deals the manager would bet their own number on. - **Best case:** deals that could close this quarter if things go well. - **Pipeline:** qualified deals that are unlikely to close this quarter. - **Omitted:** deals that should not count at all. Write a one-line definition for each and put it in the CRM. Categories that mean different things to different managers make the roll-up meaningless. ## Weighting the pipeline Stage weights turn pipeline into a number, but default weights are rarely right. Use your own historical win rate by stage, segment and deal size, and revisit it every quarter. > Teams that weight by their own history are, on median, eleven points more accurate at mid-quarter than teams using CRM defaults. ## Running the forecast call A good call takes twenty minutes and follows the same order every week: the number, what changed since last week, the deals that moved it, and the help each manager needs. Everything else belongs in a deal review. ## Forecasting with finance Finance needs a range, not a point. Share the commit, the best case and the assumptions behind each, and agree in advance which number the plan is built on. | Scenario | Win rate | Slippage | Quarter | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Worst case | 24% | 30% | $10.9M | | Base case | 29% | 20% | $12.4M | | Best case | 33% | 12% | $13.8M | ## Measuring accuracy Track the gap between the commit and the closed number at week four, week eight and the end of the quarter. Accuracy late in the quarter is easy; accuracy early is what makes the forecast useful. ## Where software helps Spreadsheets work until the team has more than a handful of managers. After that, a forecasting tool earns its place by keeping the data live, keeping the history and showing the deals behind every number. [mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/pillar&utm_medium=social&utm_source=email%20&body=Check%20out%20https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/pillar&utm_medium=social&utm_source=email](mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/pillar&utm_medium=social&utm_source=email%20&body=Check%20out%20https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/pillar&utm_medium=social&utm_source=email) Keep reading ## Related guides - ![Hands holding a phone](https://www.nopethemes.com/hs-fs/hubfs/raw_assets/public/studionope-nightshift/images/pages/blog-2.jpg?width=1600&height=1000&name=blog-2.jpg) Customer success ### [Health scores that predict churn, not noise](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/blog?hsLang=en) 11 min read - ![A desk seen from above](https://www.nopethemes.com/hs-fs/hubfs/raw_assets/public/studionope-nightshift/images/pages/blog-3.jpg?width=1600&height=1000&name=blog-3.jpg) Finance ### [Reconciling bookings and billing at month end](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/blog?hsLang=en) 9 min read - ![A meeting room](https://www.nopethemes.com/hs-fs/hubfs/raw_assets/public/studionope-nightshift/images/pages/blog-4.jpg?width=1600&height=1000&name=blog-4.jpg) Sales leadership ### [Running a twenty-minute forecast call](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/blog?hsLang=en) 6 min read From the blog ## Latest from the Keel Journal Free guide ## Get the Forecast Playbook Twelve practices from 600 revenue teams, in a 40-page guide. [Download the guide](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/ebook?hsLang=en) ![The Forecast Playbook on a desk](https://www.nopethemes.com/hs-fs/hubfs/raw_assets/public/studionope-nightshift/images/pages/shot-ebook.jpg?width=1690&height=960&name=shot-ebook.jpg) ## Run your revenue on Keel [Book a demo](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/demo?hsLang=en) Keel [![Keel](https://www.nopethemes.com/hubfs/raw_assets/public/studionope-nightshift/images/brand/keel-logo-light.svg)](https://www.nopethemes.com/nightshift/homepage?hsLang=en) The revenue operations platform for B2B teams that forecast every week. 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